Forced shutdowns have caused turmoil in the U.S. economy, hitting sectors such as the restaurant industry particularly hard. The Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that there are 8.3 million jobs in the U.S. attributed to the Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations – this includes cooks, servers, dishwashers, bartenders, food prep personnel, etc. (not general management, administrators, or executives). 96% of those employees are under the age of 65, making the restaurant industry particularly resilient during health scares such as COVID-19.    

The 18-49 age group had the highest infection percentage in the recent summer spike, but remained 4 times less likely to require hospitalization.

The premise behind the forced shutdowns was to save lives by “flattening the curve”; however, the data is showing that forced shutdowns did not significantly reduce death rates, nor did they serve to reduce the overall burden on healthcare providers.

The median age of workers in the U.S. is 42 years and the recent spike in COVID-19 infections (June 20-July 4) were primarily in the 18-49 age group.  Yet in spite of this increase in infections,  COVID-19 related deaths decreased in the week following July 4.  We can readily see by data provided by the CDC that a quarantine of the under 65 age group as a whole is not justified, but rather points to  their need of exposure to COVID-19 in order to produce antibodies against outbreaks in the future. The light-bulb moment is in realizing that even though there was an increase of COVID-19 infections among the 18-49 age group, there was a corresponding decrease in overall deaths related to COVID-19. This younger age group helped to flatten the curve by becoming infected, not avoiding it!

The light-bulb moment is in realizing that even though there was an increase of COVID-19 infections among the 18-49 age group, there was a corresponding decrease in overall deaths related to COVID-19. This younger age group helped to flatten the curve by becoming infected, not avoiding it!

Therefore, the majority of the restaurant’s work force would not have been greatly affected by COVID-19, nor would COVID-19 have affected a majority of their customers. However, given their potential lack of exposure to the disease and the resulting antibodies against future infection, this action could have set them up for a lethal exposure once they reach the vulnerable age category, should this disease reoccur.

Returning to the particular problem at hand, we can begin interpreting the above information in terms of lost revenue. Let’s allow for a scenario in which forced shutdowns did not occur, and that the entire 65 and older group would have voluntarily distanced from restaurants and refrained from spending their money on food away from home, but all other age groups maintained their spending patterns: the restaurant industry could have generated an additional $65 billion in sales for March, April, and May, 2020.

Instead of allowing restaurants to earn this additional money, however, numerous governments shutdown businesses and increased stimulus – adding to the growing economic tragedy.

Perspective: The 535 men and women of Congress, and the myriad of State and Local officials (all of whom serve in the “C-Suite” of this great conglomerate known as the United States of America), unnecessarily removed $65 billion in revenue from the U.S. economy. A general business executive that squandered over $65 billion of a company’s assets would have long since been replaced – it is time this Nation’s leaders tasted business in the real world.

James M. Spillers